Two new studies underline road safety risk of ever-larger cars
Two evidence-led pieces of work published in late June throw fresh light on a road safety trend ETSC has warned about for some time: the relentless growth in the size, height and weight of new cars sold both in Europe and in the United States.
A New York Times investigation published on 21 June, drawing on US federal crash records, vehicle dimension data, registration information and crash testing, finds that the shift in the US vehicle fleet towards taller, heavier trucks and SUVs is responsible for an estimated 200 to 400 additional US pedestrian deaths each year. From 2016 to 2024, at least 3,000 US pedestrian deaths can be linked to the rise in hood heights compared with early-2000s vehicles.
The investigation finds that each one-inch increase in hood height is associated with a 2.8% increase in the odds of a pedestrian death, and that 39% of vehicles in the US fleet today are tall enough to knock a man of average height (175cm) to the pavement rather than carry him onto the bonnet, up from 29% in 2002. Using 3D scans, the investigation also shows blind zones in popular pickups have grown sharply over the past two decades, almost doubling on the Chevrolet Silverado.
Three days later on 24 June, T&E and Clean Cities published Ever-bigger? Car size at a crossroads, a study of the same trend in Europe. The report finds that the average length of newly sold cars in Europe is growing by 1.2 cm every year and the average total height by 0.5 cm a year, with earlier T&E work having shown bonnet height rising by 0.5 cm a year and width by 0.5 cm a year. On current trends, the fleet-average bonnet height in Europe would reach 86.2 cm by 2040, compared with 80.6 cm under what the report calls a “right-sizing” scenario in which average new-car dimensions taper back to 2010–2015 levels.
The report models the two scenarios over 2026 to 2040 and finds that the continuation of current trends would result in around 2,600 additional vulnerable road user deaths over the period compared with right-sizing, including 79 children, with the annual gap reaching 400 deaths by 2040 alone. Child pedestrian deaths in 2040 would be 40% higher under current trends than under right-sizing.
ETSC has highlighted the safety risk of large American-style pickups in the European market, where sales rose 20% in 2024 alone, and has warned more broadly that any move towards mutual recognition of US vehicle safety standards in EU-US trade discussions would risk flooding the European market with heavier, less safely regulated SUVs and pickups. ETSC’s 20th PIN annual report, published on 23 June, specifically warns against weaker US vehicle safety standards being accepted in trade talks.